The Pronouncement Tracker
Bold predictions about the death of software engineering — and how they're aging.
Predictions are paraphrased from public statements and may misrepresent intent. Spotted an error or a pronouncement we missed? Let us know. (opens in a new tab)
List last updated
- Larry EllisonCo-founder & CTO, Oracle
Oracle's code is now being written by AI models rather than by Oracle developers, who instead describe desired outcomes for AI to implement.
Said - Boris ChernyHead of Claude Code, Anthropic
By the end of 2026, the title software engineer will start to disappear — replaced by builder, as everyone becomes a product manager who codes.
SaidDeadline - Mustafa SuleymanCEO, Microsoft AI
AI will reach human-level performance on most or all professional white-collar tasks, including software engineering, within 18 months.
SaidDeadline - Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic
AI models will be able to do most — possibly all — of what software engineers currently do within 6 to 12 months.
SaidDeadline - Vinod KhoslaFounder, Khosla Ventures
Within five years, AI will be able to do 80% of any economically valuable job humans can do, software engineering included.
SaidDeadline - Andy JassyCEO, Amazon
Generative AI and agents will reduce Amazon's corporate workforce in the next few years as software development and other rote work gets automated.
SaidDeadline - Satya NadellaCEO, Microsoft
Between 20% and 30% of code in Microsoft's repositories is now written by AI rather than humans.
Said - Eric SchmidtFormer CEO, Google
Within one year, the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.
SaidDeadline - Tobi LütkeCEO, Shopify
Before any new headcount or resources are approved, teams must demonstrate why their work cannot be done by AI — making AI usage a baseline expectation.
Said - Kevin ScottCTO, Microsoft
95% of all code will be AI-generated within five years.
SaidDeadline - Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder & CEO, Social Capital
The engineer's role will be supervisory at best within 18 months; tools built for engineers will be roadkill on the model-makers' roadmap.
SaidDeadline - Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic
AI will be writing 90% of all code within 3–6 months, and essentially all code within 12 months.
SaidDeadline - Jared FriedmanManaging Partner, Y Combinator
Roughly a quarter of YC's Winter 2025 startup batch have codebases that are 95% AI-generated.
Said - Mark ZuckerbergCEO, Meta
In 2025, Meta and other AI labs will have models that effectively function as mid-level engineers writing production code.
SaidDeadline - Marc BenioffCEO, Salesforce
Salesforce will hire zero new software engineers in 2025 because AI agents have absorbed the productivity gains.
SaidDeadline - Sundar PichaiCEO, Alphabet / Google
More than a quarter of all new code at Google is now generated by AI, then reviewed and accepted by engineers.
Said - Elon MuskCEO, Tesla / xAI
AI smarter than the smartest human will arrive around the end of next year (2025).
SaidDeadline - Jensen HuangCEO, NVIDIA
Children should no longer be encouraged to learn to code — AI has made programming a solved problem and humans should specialise in domain expertise instead.
Said - Emad MostaqueThen-CEO, Stability AI
There will be no human programmers in five years.
SaidDeadline
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