Is software development dead yet?

No.

See who said otherwise

The Pronouncement Tracker

Bold predictions about the death of software engineering — and how they're aging.

Predictions are paraphrased from public statements and may misrepresent intent. Spotted an error or a pronouncement we missed? Let us know. (opens in a new tab)

List last updated

  1. Larry EllisonCo-founder & CTO, Oracle

    Oracle's code is now being written by AI models rather than by Oracle developers, who instead describe desired outcomes for AI to implement.

    Said

    Reported by IBTimes UK in coverage of Oracle's 2026 layoffs · IBTimes UK (opens in a new tab)

  2. Boris ChernyHead of Claude Code, Anthropic

    By the end of 2026, the title software engineer will start to disappear — replaced by builder, as everyone becomes a product manager who codes.

    Said
    Deadline

    Lenny's Podcast with Lenny Rachitsky · Futurism (opens in a new tab)

  3. Mustafa SuleymanCEO, Microsoft AI

    AI will reach human-level performance on most or all professional white-collar tasks, including software engineering, within 18 months.

    Said
    Deadline

    Reported by Tom's Hardware (original outlet not identified in coverage) · Tom's Hardware (opens in a new tab)

  4. Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic

    AI models will be able to do most — possibly all — of what software engineers currently do within 6 to 12 months.

    Said
    Deadline

    World Economic Forum, Davos (interview with The Economist) · Entrepreneur (opens in a new tab)

  5. Vinod KhoslaFounder, Khosla Ventures

    Within five years, AI will be able to do 80% of any economically valuable job humans can do, software engineering included.

    Said
    Deadline

    Uncapped with Jack Altman podcast · Fortune (opens in a new tab)

  6. Andy JassyCEO, Amazon

    Generative AI and agents will reduce Amazon's corporate workforce in the next few years as software development and other rote work gets automated.

    Said
    Deadline

    Internal memo to Amazon employees · CNBC (opens in a new tab)

  7. Satya NadellaCEO, Microsoft

    Between 20% and 30% of code in Microsoft's repositories is now written by AI rather than humans.

    Said

    Meta LlamaCon, fireside chat with Mark Zuckerberg · TechCrunch (opens in a new tab)

  8. Eric SchmidtFormer CEO, Google

    Within one year, the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.

    Said
    Deadline

    AI+ Biotechnology Summit, Washington D.C. · Straight Arrow News (opens in a new tab)

  9. Tobi LütkeCEO, Shopify

    Before any new headcount or resources are approved, teams must demonstrate why their work cannot be done by AI — making AI usage a baseline expectation.

    Said

    Internal memo to Shopify employees · TechCrunch (opens in a new tab)

  10. Kevin ScottCTO, Microsoft

    95% of all code will be AI-generated within five years.

    Said
    Deadline

    20VC podcast with Harry Stebbings · Slashdot (opens in a new tab)

  11. Chamath PalihapitiyaFounder & CEO, Social Capital

    The engineer's role will be supervisory at best within 18 months; tools built for engineers will be roadkill on the model-makers' roadmap.

    Said
    Deadline

    Post on X (replying to Replit CEO Amjad Masad) · Business Today (opens in a new tab)

  12. Dario AmodeiCEO, Anthropic

    AI will be writing 90% of all code within 3–6 months, and essentially all code within 12 months.

    Said
    Deadline

    Council on Foreign Relations · Yahoo Finance (opens in a new tab)

  13. Jared FriedmanManaging Partner, Y Combinator

    Roughly a quarter of YC's Winter 2025 startup batch have codebases that are 95% AI-generated.

    Said

    YC Winter 2025 video discussion · TechCrunch (opens in a new tab)

  14. Mark ZuckerbergCEO, Meta

    In 2025, Meta and other AI labs will have models that effectively function as mid-level engineers writing production code.

    Said
    Deadline

    The Joe Rogan Experience #2255 · Entrepreneur (opens in a new tab)

  15. Marc BenioffCEO, Salesforce

    Salesforce will hire zero new software engineers in 2025 because AI agents have absorbed the productivity gains.

    Said
    Deadline

    20VC podcast with Harry Stebbings · Salesforce Ben (opens in a new tab)

  16. Sundar PichaiCEO, Alphabet / Google

    More than a quarter of all new code at Google is now generated by AI, then reviewed and accepted by engineers.

    Said

    Alphabet Q3 2024 earnings call · Fortune (opens in a new tab)

  17. Elon MuskCEO, Tesla / xAI

    AI smarter than the smartest human will arrive around the end of next year (2025).

    Said
    Deadline

    Conversation with Nicolai Tangen, Norges Bank Investment Management · Fortune (opens in a new tab)

  18. Jensen HuangCEO, NVIDIA

    Children should no longer be encouraged to learn to code — AI has made programming a solved problem and humans should specialise in domain expertise instead.

    Said

    World Government Summit, Dubai · Tom's Hardware (opens in a new tab)

  19. Emad MostaqueThen-CEO, Stability AI

    There will be no human programmers in five years.

    Said
    Deadline

    Moonshots and Mindsets podcast with Peter H. Diamandis · Decrypt (opens in a new tab)

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